Wellik Enterprises · Macro
Macro Demand Context Dashboard
Current conditions, momentum, evidence quality, and macroeconomic risks affecting discretionary demand.
Macro Conditions Score
49.1
Caution · coverage 90%
Macro Momentum
deteriorating
Score 28.1 · 1↑ / 4↓ · persistence 1
Data Reliability
93/100
Data reliability: 93/100. 90% of intended weight is available. One or more included/configured series are beyond freshness SLA.
Executive summary
Conditions remain caution (Conditions Score 49.1). Led by Labor & Income Conditions; main constraint is Financing Environment (stressed). Momentum is deteriorating over the medium horizon (-4.8 pts), with 1 pillar(s) improving and 4 deteriorating. Activity and labor indicators are leading market-based signals. Data reliability 93/100 — 90% of intended weight available. This dashboard measures macroeconomic conditions and direction only; it should not be used alone for acquisition or pricing decisions.
- Main support
- Labor & Income Conditions
- Main constraint
- Financing Environment
- Current regime
- Caution (since 2025-03-31)
- Prior regime
- Recovery
What could reverse direction
- Monitor the next inflation (CPI/PCE), employment, and financial-conditions releases.
- Financing conditions remain restrictive — watch SOFR, real yields, and credit spreads.
- Macro momentum is weakening — confirm persistence on the next two month-ends.
- Data quality: 5 series are stale or in source error — effective weights were reduced or excluded.
- Global/FX is an overlay only and is not included in the core Conditions Score.
Upcoming releases
- Consumer Price Index · Monthly (BLS)Shifts inflation-band scores and policy-pressure pillar.
- Employment Situation (UNRATE, PAYEMS) · Monthly (BLS)Updates labor & income conditions and claims context.
- Weekly Jobless Claims · Weekly (DOL)High-frequency labor stress impulse.
- Personal Income & Outlays / Core PCE · Monthly (BEA)Fed-preferred inflation and real income growth.
Contribution to current score
Normalized composite-score points (reconciled to Conditions Score).
Contribution to score change
Medium-horizon change in weighted contributions (score points).
Conditions & momentum over time
Latest-vintage reconstruction · Historical scores are a latest-vintage reconstruction using currently revised FRED observations. They are not a real-tim…
Recession shading source: NBER via FRED USREC (not plotted in this build — enable when series is wired).
Pillar overview
Financing Environment
27.9
Constraint
Business-Cycle Direction
55.2
Neutral
Inflation & Policy Pressure
60.1
Supportive
Labor & Income Conditions
66.7
Supportive
Wealth & Risk Appetite
44.8
Neutral
Global / FX Overlay
25.2
Overlay only — excluded from core Conditions Score. OECD CLI series quarantined.
Financing environment
Rates, real yields, curve shape, and credit spreads.
| Indicator | Transformed | Unit | Level | Trend | Final | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.29 | % | 0 | deteriorating | 7.5 | current |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.88 | % | 3.3 | deteriorating | 16.2 | current |
| 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) | 2.93 | % | 0 | deteriorating | 7.5 | current |
| Secured Overnight Financing Rate | 3.9 | % | 35.3 | deteriorating | 31.1 | current |
| 10Y − 2Y Treasury Spread | 0.41 | percentage points | 70 | improving | 68.5 | current |
| Investment-Grade OAS | 0.84 | % | 55.6 | deteriorating | 41.3 | current |
Data quality
- Current
- 20
- Delayed
- 5
- Stale
- 5
- Unavailable
- 0
- Intended coverage
- 90%
- Effective coverage
- 90%
Reliability over time
| Indicator | Pillar | Transformed | Unit | Obs. date | Freshness | Level | Trend | Final | Eff. wt | Contribution | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financing Environment | 5.29 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 0 | 25(deteriorating) | 7.5 | 5.0% | 0.43 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 4.88 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 3.3 | 25(deteriorating) | 16.2 | 3.5% | 0.64 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 2.93 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 0 | 25(deteriorating) | 7.5 | 4.5% | 0.38 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 3.9 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 35.3 | 25(deteriorating) | 31.1 | 3.5% | 1.24 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 0.41 | percentage points | 2026-09-30 | current | 70 | 65(improving) | 68.5 | 4.0% | 3.11 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 0.84 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 55.6 | 25(deteriorating) | 41.3 | 4.5% | 2.11 | High | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | -0.04 | index | 2026-08-01 | delayed | 64.7 | 35(deteriorating) | 49.9 | 7.5% | 4.24 | Medium | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | 1.38 | % YoY | 2026-08-01 | delayed | 65.7 | 65(improving) | 62.4 | 5.6% | 3.98 | Medium | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | — | % YoY | 2026-04-01 | stale | — | 25(deteriorating) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | — | index | 2024-01-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 2.77 | % YoY | 2026-08-01 | delayed | 95 | 100(improving) | 91.5 | 4.5% | 4.64 | Medium | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 2.57 | % YoY | 2026-09-01 | current | 95 | 35(deteriorating) | 68 | 3.8% | 2.9 | High | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 3.72 | % YoY | 2026-09-01 | current | 50 | 25(deteriorating) | 39.5 | 2.3% | 1.01 | High | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 9.87 | % YoY | 2026-08-01 | delayed | 10 | 35(deteriorating) | 25.5 | 1.3% | 0.37 | Medium | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 2.36 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 22.5 | 25(deteriorating) | 24.8 | 2.3% | 0.63 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 200,500 | persons (4-week MA) | 2026-09-26 | current | 98.3 | 100(improving) | 93.2 | 4.5% | 4.76 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 1,710,500 | persons (4-week MA) | 2026-09-26 | current | 75 | 100(improving) | 87.5 | 2.7% | 2.68 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 4.2 | % | 2026-09-01 | current | 75 | 65(improving) | 67 | 3.6% | 2.74 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 0.31 | % YoY | 2026-09-01 | current | 21.3 | 100(improving) | 53.6 | 3.6% | 2.19 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 1.2 | % YoY | 2026-08-01 | delayed | 19.4 | 25(deteriorating) | 24.2 | 3.1% | 0.84 | Medium | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | 2.03 | % (3-month return) | 2026-09-30 | current | 36.8 | 25(deteriorating) | 31.9 | 5.6% | 2.03 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | -1.89 | % drawdown | 2026-09-30 | current | 46.7 | 25(deteriorating) | 36.8 | 3.4% | 1.42 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | 16.34 | index | 2026-09-30 | current | 85 | 35(flat) | 63 | 4.4% | 3.15 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | 3.12 | % | 2026-09-30 | current | 41.7 | 25(deteriorating) | 34.3 | 4.0% | 1.56 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | -0.52 | index | 2026-09-25 | current | 58.3 | 65(improving) | 68.7 | 2.6% | 2.03 | High | |
| Global / FX Overlay | 120.97 | index | 2026-09-30 | current | 25.8 | 35(flat) | 33.4 | 0.0% | — | High | |
| Global / FX Overlay | 115.91 | USD/barrel | 2026-09-30 | current | 3.3 | 25(deteriorating) | 15.2 | 0.0% | — | High | |
| Global / FX Overlay | — | index | 2022-11-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Global / FX Overlay | — | index | 2022-11-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Global / FX Overlay | — | index | 2024-01-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low |