CN Market Indicator Dashboard

Macro demand backdrop and CPO operating guidance for discretionary aircraft demand context.

Last updated: 7/16/2026, 4:55:39 PM | Data source: FRED API

Historical score calculated monthly using latest available values.

Some indicators are unavailable and were excluded from the current score.

Live macro dataPhase 2 aircraft data pending

This dashboard measures the macroeconomic backdrop for discretionary aircraft demand, including rates, credit, labor markets, inflation, equity-market strength, volatility, and global risk appetite. It does not yet measure live preowned aircraft inventory, days on market, asking prices, transaction volume, or model-specific aircraft liquidity. Those aviation-market indicators are planned for Phase 2, pending reliable public, manual, or licensed data sources.

Macro Demand Backdrop Score

Tailwind

64 / 100

30D: +1.6

90D: +10.7

Current Macro Regime

Tailwind

Conditions are supportive for demand, though still sensitive to financing changes.

Executive Summary

30D direction: Flat

90D direction: Improving

Financing friction: 64 / 100

Risk appetite: 84 / 100

CPO Action Bias

Selective / Review

Sales motion: Qualify Harder

Data Confidence

Medium

Macro inputs are public FRED data. Aircraft liquidity and pricing remain excluded until Phase 2.

Macro Score Details

Macro demand backdrop conditions are currently tailwind, with a Macro Demand Backdrop Score of 64.2. Conditions are improving over the last 90 days. Labor & Income is the strongest pillar, while Rates & Financing remains the main drag. The biggest positive driver is NASDAQ Composite, while Continuing Claims is the biggest negative driver. This is a macro signal for discretionary aircraft demand, not confirmation of preowned aircraft inventory liquidity, asking-price strength, transaction volume, or model-specific CPO pricing power.

CPO Operating Guidance

Rule-based operating posture from current macro inputs. Validate all acquisition and pricing decisions with model-specific aircraft data when available.

Acquisition Bias

Selective

Rule based

Pricing Bias

Review

Rule based

Financing Sensitivity

High

Rule based

Sales Motion

Qualify Harder

Rule based

Leadership Actions This Week

1.Trade-in posture: remain selective. Do not allow improving equity markets to justify overpaying for aircraft without model-specific support.
2.Pricing posture: review premium and aged inventory manually before assuming macro support translates into aircraft liquidity.
3.Sales posture: re-engage warm prospects while wealth and risk indicators are supportive.
4.Financing posture: payment sensitivity is elevated. Qualify buyers earlier and avoid aggressive trade-in assumptions.
5.Risk posture: macro backdrop is not proof of aircraft market strength until model-specific liquidity data is available.

Macro Demand Backdrop Score Over Time

Historical score calculated monthly using latest available values.

Historical Macro Regime Timeline

Strong Tailwind

Tailwind

Mixed / Neutral

Headwind

Severe Stress

Recovery Watch

Late-Cycle Caution

Pillar Breakdown

Rates & Financing

36 / 100

90D: +4.2

Positive drivers

No pillar-specific positive driver.

Negative drivers

No pillar-specific negative driver.

Jump to deep dive

Business Cycle

71 / 100

90D: -0.3

Positive drivers

No pillar-specific positive driver.

Negative drivers

No pillar-specific negative driver.

Jump to deep dive

Inflation & Cost Pressure

46 / 100

90D: -2.3

Positive drivers

Producer Price Index (YoY)

Headline CPI (YoY)

Negative drivers

No pillar-specific negative driver.

Jump to deep dive

Labor & Income

91 / 100

90D: +7.3

Positive drivers

No pillar-specific positive driver.

Negative drivers

Continuing Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

Jump to deep dive

Wealth & Risk Appetite

84 / 100

90D: +45

Positive drivers

NASDAQ Composite

S&P 500 Index

Negative drivers

CBOE Volatility Index

Jump to deep dive

Why? Macro Score Contributors

Biggest Positive Drivers

NASDAQ Composite: NASDAQ Composite is improving over the last 90 days, which influences market risk conditions. Impact: +522.4.
S&P 500 Index: S&P 500 Index is improving over the last 90 days, which influences market risk conditions. Impact: +119.2.
Producer Price Index (YoY): Producer Price Index (YoY) is improving over the last 6 months, which influences inflation policy conditions. Impact: +0.9.
Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index: Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is improving over the last 90 days, which influences international pulse conditions. Impact: +0.6.
Headline CPI (YoY): Headline CPI (YoY) is improving over the last 6 months, which influences inflation policy conditions. Impact: +0.2.

Biggest Negative Drivers

Continuing Claims: Continuing Claims is deteriorating over the last 13 weeks, which influences labor stress conditions. Impact: -17,400.
Initial Jobless Claims: Initial Jobless Claims is deteriorating over the last 13 weeks, which influences labor stress conditions. Impact: -3,150.
CBOE Volatility Index: CBOE Volatility Index is deteriorating over the last 90 days, which influences market risk conditions. Impact: -0.9.
Brent Crude Oil Price: Brent Crude Oil Price is deteriorating over the last 90 days, which influences international pulse conditions. Impact: -0.2.
Unemployment Rate: Unemployment Rate is deteriorating over the last 6 months, which influences labor stress conditions. Impact: -0.1.

Financing Conditions

Aircraft purchases are disproportionately sensitive to rates, credit spreads, and buyer payment capacity.

Live

Financing Friction Score

64 / 100

Higher means more restrictive financing friction.

Buyer Payment Sensitivity

High

Trade-In Spread Bias

Wider trade-in spread; protect downside.

Sales Guidance

Buyer wealth signals may be supportive, but financing remains a constraint. Prioritize cash buyers and financially qualified prospects.

Indicator	Latest Value	Level Signal	30-Day Trend	90-Day Trend	Trend Signal	Included
10-Year Treasury Yield	4.58	Bad	0.04	0.47	Deteriorating	Yes
2-Year Treasury Yield	4.18	Bad	0.26	0.76	Deteriorating	Yes
10Y - 2Y Treasury Yield Spread	0.42	Neutral	-0.22	-0.29	Deteriorating	Yes
Effective Federal Funds Rate	3.63	Bad	-0.01	-0.01	Improving	Yes
ICE BofA US Investment Grade OAS	0.79	Good	-0.05	-0.1	Improving	Yes
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS	2.71	Good	-0.08	-0.37	Improving	Yes

ManualPhase 2

Bank lending standards and aircraft lending proxies are planned as future public/manual inputs and are not included in the current score.

Global / FX

Global Headwind

Global and FX conditions are shown separately from the core Macro Demand Backdrop Score.

45 / 100

OECD CLI, OECD Total

98.31

OECD CLI, Europe

98.31

OECD CLI, China

101.38

Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index

120.5

Brent Crude Oil Price

81.62

Industry Supply Context

Phase 2Public context only

Future GAMA shipment reports and FAA registry downloads may provide industry supply or fleet context, such as delivery trends, fleet size, model age distribution, or registration activity. They are not preowned liquidity, asking-price, sale-price, trade-value, or days-on-market sources.

Aircraft Market Intelligence

Aircraft-specific preowned inventory, asking price, days-on-market, and transaction indicators require reliable listing or licensed market data. This section is designed for manual CSV upload or future licensed data integration. Automated scraping is intentionally not enabled.

Active Inventory

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

Median Asking Price

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

Median Days on Market

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

Price Reductions

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

Months of Supply

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

Absorption

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

CPO-Eligible Inventory

Phase 2

Manual/Licensed Data Required

Raw Data & Indicator Deep Dive

Indicator	Pillar	Source	FRED ID	Frequency	Latest Observation Date	Days Since Update	Latest Value	Transformed	Level Signal	30-Day Trend	90-Day Trend	1Y	Trend Signal	Level Score	Trend Score	Momentum	Final Score	Weight	Included in Score	Confidence
10-Year Treasury Yield	Rates & Financing	FRED	DGS10	daily	2026-07-14	2	4.58	4.44	Bad	0.04	0.47	0.2	Deteriorating	6.1	0	0	3.1	24%	Yes	High
2-Year Treasury Yield	Rates & Financing	FRED	DGS2	daily	2026-07-14	2	4.18	4.14	Bad	0.26	0.76	0.42	Deteriorating	21.1	0	0	10.5	18%	Yes	High
10Y - 2Y Treasury Yield Spread	Rates & Financing	FRED	T10Y2Y	daily	2026-07-15	1	0.42	0.3	Neutral	-0.22	-0.29	-0.22	Deteriorating	50	0	0	25	18%	Yes	High
Effective Federal Funds Rate	Rates & Financing	FRED	FEDFUNDS	monthly	2026-06-01	45	3.63	3.63	Bad	-0.01	-0.01	-0.7	Improving	36.8	100	65	63.2	22%	Yes	Medium
ICE BofA US Investment Grade OAS	Rates & Financing	FRED	BAMLC0A0CM	daily	2026-07-15	1	0.79	0.76	Good	-0.05	-0.1	-0.1	Improving	88.9	100	50	86.9	18%	Yes	High
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS	Wealth & Risk Appetite	FRED	BAMLH0A0HYM2	daily	2026-07-15	1	2.71	2.75	Good	-0.08	-0.37	-0.21	Improving	88.9	100	50	86.9	17%	Yes	High
ISM Manufacturing PMI Not available. Excluded from current score.	Business Cycle	FRED	NAPM	monthly	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	35%	No	Low
OECD U.S. Composite Leading Indicator	Business Cycle	FRED	USALOLITONOSTSAM	monthly	2024-01-01	927	99.85	99.85	Neutral	0	0	0	Flat	64	50	35	54.8	30%	Yes	Medium
Real Gross Domestic Product	Business Cycle	FRED	GDPC1	quarterly	2026-01-01	196	24,180.42	24,180.42	Good	0	0	409.44	Flat	100	50	50	75	20%	Yes	Medium
Industrial Production Index	Business Cycle	FRED	INDPRO	monthly	2026-05-01	76	102.65	102.65	Good	0.14	0.7	1.17	Improving	90.4	100	100	95.2	15%	Yes	Medium
Core PCE Price Index (YoY)	Inflation & Cost Pressure	FRED	PCEPILFE	monthly	2026-05-01	76	130.08	3.14	Good	-0.18	0.09	0.33	Deteriorating	75	0	35	42.8	35%	Yes	Medium
Core CPI (YoY)	Inflation & Cost Pressure	FRED	CPILFESL	monthly	2026-06-01	45	336.07	2.57	Good	-0.18	0.09	-0.35	Flat	95	50	50	72.5	25%	Yes	Medium
Headline CPI (YoY)	Inflation & Cost Pressure	FRED	CPIAUCSL	monthly	2026-06-01	45	332.57	3.46	Good	-0.32	1.03	0.78	Deteriorating	75	25	0	46.3	15%	Yes	Medium
Producer Price Index (YoY)	Inflation & Cost Pressure	FRED	PPIACO	monthly	2026-06-01	45	286.83	10.11	Bad	0.67	6.24	8.32	Deteriorating	10	0	0	5	15%	Yes	Medium
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate	Inflation & Cost Pressure	FRED	T10YIE	daily	2026-07-15	1	2.23	2.24	Bad	-0.22	-0.01	-0.05	Improving	43.9	75	50	55.7	10%	Yes	High
Initial Jobless Claims	Labor & Income	FRED	ICSA	weekly	2026-07-11	5	208,000	208,750	Good	-500	-7,000	-24,750	Improving	93.9	100	100	96.9	45%	Yes	High
Unemployment Rate	Labor & Income	FRED	UNRATE	monthly	2026-06-01	45	4.2	4.2	Good	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	Improving	75	100	100	87.5	35%	Yes	Medium
Continuing Claims	Labor & Income	FRED	CCSA	weekly	2026-07-04	12	1,805,000	1,788,000	Neutral	-24,750	-87,000	-118,750	Improving	64	100	100	82	20%	Yes	High
CBOE Volatility Index	Wealth & Risk Appetite	FRED	VIXCLS	daily	2026-07-15	1	15.67	16.45	Good	-0.44	-3.41	-0.28	Improving	85	100	50	85	25%	Yes	High
S&P 500 Index	Wealth & Risk Appetite	FRED	SP500	daily	2026-07-15	1	7,572.4	7,429.48	Good	557.34	541.67	1,534.24	Improving	100	100	50	92.5	22%	Yes	High
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index	Wealth & Risk Appetite	FRED	NFCI	weekly	2026-07-10	6	-0.54	-0.51	Neutral	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	Improving	55.3	75	50	61.4	18%	Yes	High
NASDAQ Composite	Wealth & Risk Appetite	FRED	NASDAQCOM	daily	2026-07-15	1	26,269.23	26,026.22	Good	2,975.83	2,902.21	7,049.6	Improving	100	100	50	92.5	18%	Yes	High
OECD CLI, OECD Total	Global / FX	FRED	OECDLOLITOAASTSAM	monthly	2022-11-01	1353	98.31	98.31	Bad	0	0	0	Flat	43	50	35	44.2	25%	No	Medium
OECD CLI, Europe	Global / FX	FRED	OECDELOLITONOSTSAM	monthly	2022-11-01	1353	98.31	98.31	Bad	0	0	0	Flat	42.1	50	35	43.8	20%	No	Medium
OECD CLI, China	Global / FX	FRED	CHNLOLITONOSTSAM	monthly	2024-01-01	927	101.38	101.38	Good	0	0	0	Flat	95.6	50	35	70.6	15%	No	Medium
Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index	Global / FX	FRED	DTWEXBGS	daily	2026-07-10	6	120.5	120.92	Bad	2.25	3.1	1.52	Deteriorating	29.8	0	0	14.9	20%	No	High
Brent Crude Oil Price	Global / FX	FRED	DCOILBRENTEU	daily	2026-07-13	3	81.62	70.46	Neutral	-53.78	-0.86	2.31	Improving	52.6	75	50	60.1	20%	No	High