Wellik Enterprises · Macro
Macro Demand Context Dashboard
Current conditions, momentum, evidence quality, and macroeconomic risks affecting discretionary demand.
Macro Conditions Score
49.9
Caution · coverage 99%
Macro Momentum
deteriorating
Score 39.4 · 2↑ / 3↓ · persistence 1
Data Reliability
99/100
Data reliability: 99/100. 99% of intended weight is available. One or more included/configured series are beyond freshness SLA.
Executive summary
Conditions remain caution (Conditions Score 49.9). Led by Inflation & Policy Pressure; main constraint is Financing Environment (restrictive). Momentum is deteriorating over the medium horizon (-5.8 pts), with 2 pillar(s) improving and 3 deteriorating. Support is reasonably balanced across market and activity pillars. Data reliability 99/100 — 99% of intended weight available. This dashboard measures macroeconomic conditions and direction only; it should not be used alone for acquisition or pricing decisions.
- Main support
- Inflation & Policy Pressure
- Main constraint
- Financing Environment
- Current regime
- Caution (since 2024-09-30)
- Prior regime
- Recovery
What could reverse direction
- Monitor the next inflation (CPI/PCE), employment, and financial-conditions releases.
- Financing conditions remain restrictive — watch SOFR, real yields, and credit spreads.
- Macro momentum is weakening — confirm persistence on the next two month-ends.
- Data quality: 4 series are stale or in source error — effective weights were reduced or excluded.
- Global/FX is an overlay only and is not included in the core Conditions Score.
Upcoming releases
- Consumer Price Index · Monthly (BLS)Shifts inflation-band scores and policy-pressure pillar.
- Employment Situation (UNRATE, PAYEMS) · Monthly (BLS)Updates labor & income conditions and claims context.
- Weekly Jobless Claims · Weekly (DOL)High-frequency labor stress impulse.
- Personal Income & Outlays / Core PCE · Monthly (BEA)Fed-preferred inflation and real income growth.
Contribution to current score
Normalized composite-score points (reconciled to Conditions Score).
Contribution to score change
Medium-horizon change in weighted contributions (score points).
Conditions & momentum over time
Latest-vintage reconstruction · Historical scores are a latest-vintage reconstruction using currently revised FRED observations. They are not a real-tim…
Recession shading source: NBER via FRED USREC (not plotted in this build — enable when series is wired).
Pillar overview
Financing Environment
34.6
Constraint
Business-Cycle Direction
38.2
Constraint
Inflation & Policy Pressure
65.5
Supportive
Labor & Income Conditions
64.2
Supportive
Wealth & Risk Appetite
57.6
Neutral
Global / FX Overlay
36.9
Overlay only — excluded from core Conditions Score. OECD CLI series quarantined.
Financing environment
Rates, real yields, curve shape, and credit spreads.
| Indicator | Transformed | Unit | Level | Trend | Final | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.75 | % | 0 | deteriorating | 7.5 | current |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.28 | % | 14.2 | deteriorating | 14.6 | current |
| 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) | 2.47 | % | 0 | deteriorating | 13.5 | current |
| Secured Overnight Financing Rate | 3.66 | % | 42 | flat | 50.5 | current |
| 10Y − 2Y Treasury Spread | 0.47 | percentage points | 50 | deteriorating | 51.5 | current |
| Investment-Grade OAS | 0.79 | % | 80.6 | improving | 73.8 | current |
Data quality
- Current
- 25
- Delayed
- 1
- Stale
- 4
- Unavailable
- 0
- Intended coverage
- 99%
- Effective coverage
- 99%
Reliability over time
| Indicator | Pillar | Transformed | Unit | Obs. date | Freshness | Level | Trend | Final | Eff. wt | Contribution | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financing Environment | 4.75 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 0 | 25(deteriorating) | 7.5 | 5.0% | 0.38 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 4.28 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 14.2 | 25(deteriorating) | 14.6 | 3.5% | 0.52 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 2.47 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 0 | 25(deteriorating) | 13.5 | 4.5% | 0.61 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 3.66 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 42 | 65(flat) | 50.5 | 3.5% | 1.79 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 0.47 | percentage points | 2026-07-31 | current | 50 | 65(deteriorating) | 51.5 | 4.0% | 2.08 | High | |
| Financing Environment | 0.79 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 80.6 | 65(improving) | 73.8 | 4.5% | 3.35 | High | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | -0.08 | index | 2026-07-01 | current | 63.2 | 35(flat) | 48.1 | 8.8% | 4.28 | High | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | 1.08 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 61.1 | 35(flat) | 47.1 | 6.6% | 3.14 | High | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | 1.01 | % YoY | 2026-04-01 | delayed | 9.2 | 25(deteriorating) | 12.1 | 5.6% | 0.68 | Medium | |
| Business-Cycle Direction | — | index | 2024-01-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 3.34 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 75 | 35(deteriorating) | 58 | 5.3% | 3.08 | High | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 2.47 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 95 | 100(improving) | 91.5 | 3.8% | 3.47 | High | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 3.3 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 75 | 65(deteriorating) | 71 | 2.3% | 1.61 | High | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 8.27 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 10 | 65(deteriorating) | 38.5 | 1.5% | 0.58 | High | |
| Inflation & Policy Pressure | 2.28 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 37.5 | 65(improving) | 52.3 | 2.3% | 1.19 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 203,250 | persons (4-week MA) | 2026-07-25 | current | 97.5 | 100(improving) | 91.7 | 4.5% | 4.17 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 1,790,750 | persons (4-week MA) | 2026-07-25 | current | 62.2 | 65(flat) | 60.6 | 2.7% | 1.65 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 4.1 | % | 2026-07-01 | current | 75 | 100(improving) | 81.5 | 3.6% | 2.96 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 0.2 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 15.7 | 50(flat) | 36.9 | 3.6% | 1.34 | High | |
| Labor & Income Conditions | 0.45 | % YoY | 2026-07-01 | current | 18.5 | 65(deteriorating) | 42.8 | 3.6% | 1.55 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | 3.59 | % (3-month return) | 2026-07-31 | current | 49.1 | 35(flat) | 41.1 | 5.6% | 2.32 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | -1.58 | % drawdown | 2026-07-31 | current | 50.8 | 35(deteriorating) | 41.9 | 3.4% | 1.44 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | 15.99 | index | 2026-07-31 | current | 85 | 65(improving) | 82 | 4.4% | 3.64 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | 2.85 | % | 2026-07-31 | current | 75 | 35(flat) | 54 | 4.0% | 2.18 | High | |
| Wealth & Risk Appetite | -0.55 | index | 2026-07-31 | current | 67.2 | 100(improving) | 77.6 | 2.6% | 2.04 | High | |
| Global / FX Overlay | 119.7 | index | 2026-07-31 | current | 35 | 65(deteriorating) | 37 | 0.0% | — | High | |
| Global / FX Overlay | 96.95 | USD/barrel | 2026-07-31 | current | 6.7 | 65(improving) | 36.8 | 0.0% | — | High | |
| Global / FX Overlay | — | index | 2022-11-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Global / FX Overlay | — | index | 2022-11-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low | |
| Global / FX Overlay | — | index | 2024-01-01 | stale | — | —(mixed) | — | 0.0% | — | Low |